The Personal Connection & December Tucson Market update

by Jennifer Winchester

Cat wearing a green holiday collar sitting among colorful Christmas lights, with text reading “December 2025 – Mystery House Real Estate.”
Thanks for taking a few minutes to read and stay connected—and I appreciate your patience. I’m sorry this is landing a bit late; I’ve been under the weather all week and moving at a very human pace.

Whether you’re thinking about sending a note, keeping an eye on the market, or quietly wondering what your next move might be, know that I’m always here as a resource. Not just when you’re ready to buy or sell, but anytime you want clarity, perspective, or a straight answer.

Wishing you a calm close to the year, good health, and plenty of small moments that actually feel meaningful.

Person smiling while reading a red handwritten card, with text explaining the value of handwritten notes and a list of reasons to send them.

Downtown Tucson skyline at sunset with the “A” Mountain visible, overlaid with text reading “Market Update” and Mystery House Real Estate branding.

National Real Estate News

Line chart displaying U-3 and U-6 unemployment rates from 2023 to 2025, showing a gradual increase in both measures over time.

A very weak jobs report

The BLS reported jobs growth of just +64K in November, but that was after -108K in October. In addition, previously released figures were revised down by 59K. The narrow unemployment rate (U-3) rose from 4.4% in September to 4.6% in November. The broader unemployment rate (U-6) rose from 8.0% in September to 8.7% in November. Ignoring COVID, that’s the highest since March 2017. [Source: BLS]

Line graph showing year-over-year Consumer Price Index trends, with both headline CPI and core CPI steadily declining from mid-2022 through late 2025.

Lowest "core" CPI in years

Both "headline" and "core" CPI (Consumer Price Index = inflation for you and me) climbed just +0.2% over the last two months, allowing the annual inflation rate for "headline" CPI to fall to +2.7% YoY and "core" CPI to drop to 2.6% YoY. That's the slowest rate of "core" CPI growth since April 2021! [Source: BLS]

Infographic showing average 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.21% as of December 18, 2025, compared to 6.72% one year ago and a previous peak of 7.79%.

Goods news for rates

The Federal Reserve's dual mandate is to keep both inflation and unemployment under control. Lately, the Fed has been more worried about the slowing jobs market than inflation, and the latest data from the BLS (jump in unemployment + lowest "core" CPI in years) strongly supports that view. Average 30-yr mortgage rates moved back below 6.25%. [Source: Freddie Mac PMMS]

Local Market Trends

As of Friday, December 19, 2025

Dashboard showing Tucson real estate market metrics including new listings, sold listings, median sale price, days on market, and year-to-date comparisons.

The Tucson market is continuing to cool off and normalize—finally acting like a market instead of a roller coaster. Year-to-date sales are slightly up, but prices have softened just a bit. The median sale price is sitting around $362,000, down about 1.4% from last year, and homes are taking longer to sell, with median days on market now in the mid-30s. Translation: buyers have more breathing room, and sellers need to be realistic on price and condition.

Inventory is up, with over 22,000 new listings this year, which means more choices for buyers and more competition for sellers. Most homes are closing under asking price (by about 2% on average), and price reductions are becoming more common—especially for homes that miss the mark early. Well-priced, well-presented homes are still moving; overpriced ones are sitting.

Bottom line: this is a more balanced market. Buyers have leverage again, and sellers who price strategically (not nostalgically) are the ones getting results. If you’re thinking about making a move, the details matter more than ever.

Tucson neighborhood with red-tile roofs and the Catalina Mountains in the background, overlaid with text reading “Active Listings” and Mystery House Real Estate branding.

5426 E 18th St, 85711

This mid-century Tucson classic is UNDER CONTRACT! With fresh interior paint, an updated kitchen, owned solar, a newer A/C (2023), and that easy, central-Tucson location, Real estate timing beats New Year’s resolutions every time.

166 E Limberlost Dr #202

This rare 2BD/1BA upstairs condo in Stone Curves CoHousing is full of natural light, cork flooring, a stylish kitchen, and a private balcony — all nestled in one of Tucson’s most vibrant, intentional communities.

This one is taking a breather for the holidays, but if you know anyone looking for Community, let me know!

Vendor Spotlight graphic featuring a portrait of Alia Yasin alongside a Tucson desert sunset with saguaros and the Sonoran Senior Solutions logo.

Holiday Vendor Spotlight: Alia Yasin – Sonoran Senior Solutions

The holidays bring families together—and sometimes, they bring tough realizations. Alia Yasin, Strategy & Operations Manager at Sonoran Senior Solutions, says the calls have already started: adult children returning home for Thanksgiving and noticing changes in their aging parents—missed medications, spoiled food, signs of memory loss or confusion.

It’s emotional. It’s overwhelming. And most of the time, families have no idea where to begin.

That’s exactly where Alia steps in. With over 20 years in healthcare and certifications in dementia care and case management, she helps families understand their options and create a plan that supports safety, dignity, and peace of mind.

Alia’s services are always free to the client. For thoughtful, ethical guidance on senior living options, contact:

520-400-4524
SonoranSeniorSolutions.com

Because peace of mind is the best gift you can give this season.

Thanks for taking a few minutes to read and stay connected. Whether you’re thinking about sending a note, keeping an eye on the market, or quietly wondering what your next move might be, know that I’m always here as a resource—not just when you’re ready to buy or sell, but anytime you need clarity, perspective, or a straight answer. Wishing you a calm close to the year and plenty of small moments that feel meaningful.